Update: Here's
a recent article offering even further background on Elizabeth O'Bagy whom I mention later in my article.
11 Sep 2013:
Yet another update, Elizabeth O'Bagy fired for falsifying credentials
Do you know what a think tank is?
It might not be what you think it is (bad pun.) I'm going to tell you a story about what I've
been doing in my spare time over the past few days.
Eventually the story will lead to a
discussion of a Washington
think tank called
The Institute for the Study of War.
It'll take me a while to get there, but
please be patient.
The preface is kind
of important to the story.
I'm not sure
anyone else will find what I have to say today interesting or unusual, but I
think it's kind of a big deal.
Oh, and this
article has a curveball at the end.
Kind
of like a mystery novel with a twist.
If
you read all the way to the end, I'll give you a surprise.
Over the weekend, I
watched a video that was posted on a
website that I read regularly. The video was a Bill Moyers interview with
Mark Leibovich who covers Washington,
D.C., as chief national
correspondent for The New York Times Magazine. He was speaking about his new
book, This Town, where he writes about the city’s "bipartisan lust for
power, cash and notoriety." It's well worth your time for its own
sake, but the piece of that video that is important to my story today was his
description of how people in government and politics often go on to become
lobbyists after their careers in "public service." Indeed,
often as not, the public service career is no more than a training ground and
an opportunity for resume building for the more lucrative career in influence
peddling that follows. One of the lobbying firms he mentioned was
Patton Boggs. The
Boggs part of the name refers to
Thomas Hale Boggs Jr., son of former
Louisiana Congressman Hale Boggs, and former Louisiana Congresswoman and Vatican
ambassador Lindy Boggs, and brother of NPR and ABC journalist Cokie
Roberts. You might think, wow, quite a successful family. But I was
thinking, wow, what an unsettling confluence between politics, big money
lobbying, and big time media. Read Mr. Boggs
resume on the Patton Boggs website to
see what kind of government spending and policy initiatives he claims
responsibility for. Another lobbying firm that got a mention was
Quinn
Gillespie and Associates. The Gillespie part of that name is
Ed Gillespie, former
counselor to the president in the George W. Bush White House, former advisor to
Mitt Romney, and Founder of the
Crossroads
GPS PAC along with Karl Rove. He's partnered with
Jack Quinn,
former Chief of Staff to Vice President Al Gore. Strange bedfellows
eh? Read about their careers at the links provided to get a sense of what
they've been up to over the years.
Here's
a list of some of the things the folks at Quinn Gillespie are taking credit
for in Washington.
Also mentioned in the Moyers video was former Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
Senator
Bayh quit the Senate complaining about Washington's inability to address the
nation's problems, then went to become a partner at lobbying firm
McGuire Woods. Pot, meet kettle.
So what's my point with all of this? Am I just jealous that all of
these high power people go on to even higher powered jobs after they leave
government. No, that's not it. The lesson to be learned here
is that there's a tremendous amount of inbreeding in Washington. Or to put it another way,
look into the backgrounds of some of the players, and you'd be amazed at the
nexus that develops. You'll be surprised at how one individual connects with
another individual, group, or ideology that you would have never guessed were
related in any way. Have you heard the phrase
six degrees of
separation? Wikipedia describes it as:
"the theory
that everyone and everything is six or fewer steps away, by way of introduction,
from any other person in the world, so that a chain of "a friend of a friend" statements can be
made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps."
It seems that in Washington,
everyone is just one or two degrees of separation from everyone else instead of
six. But here's what struck me about this. I see folks like Evan
Bayh, Ed Gillespie, and Cokie Roberts on TV all the time. They're all
regular fixtures on the Sunday morning news shows. They're up there
opining on all the news of the day. Telling us what they think about all
the important issues facing our country. And we listen because they've
got credentials. They've got experience. They have access to information
that we don't have, so we trust them to guide us through the complexity and the
nuance of government policy. But all along, what we don't know is that they're
also getting paid by somebody to tell us what they're telling us. I
don't remember ever hearing a disclaimer on any Sunday morning show explaining
that so and so works for such and such a lobbying firm. Have you ever
heard such a disclaimer? Do you think you'd like to know if the guy up
there telling you that we need to go to war with Iraq, or Libya, or Syria works
for a company that gets paid to represent the interests of defense contractors
or oil companies or private security firms? What a tremendous conflict of
interest that would represent. And yet no one mentions it.
And this is just a short list of three people
who I remember from the Leibovich interview. How many more of the so
called pundits, experts and talking heads who populate the public affairs
programs on a regular basis are just telling us what they've been paid to tell
us. Henry Kissinger is a former Secretary of State and National Security
adviser. His opinion carries a lot of weight. Well his opinion
might be for sale. He is the principal behind
Kissinger Associates,
along with another former National Security Adviser, Brent Scowcroft. If
you have been clicking on any of these links along the way, you may have
noticed what I was noticing.
All kinds
of well known names keep popping up on the staffs of lobbying firms, and a lot
of the partisan or ideological labels that you used to think applied to them
have gone out the window.
Every name you
investigate reveals one, two or three other names you recognize that you never
imagined had a relationship with the first name. Is this how conspiracy
theories are born? If it is, are conspiracy theories really so crazy
after all?
OK. So I'm off topic. I want to talk about think tanks, not
lobbying firms.
They're different,
right? Well, maybe not.
So Monday,
I'm reading, and listening to the radio, and Googling this thing and the other,
trying to decide for myself what's going on in Syria, and what we should do
about it. I'm deluding myself that if I just do enough homework, I'll be
able to figure out what's really going on there.
I was listening to NPR on my way to the bank;
On Point
with Tom Ashbrook to be exact. They were talking about Syria.
They were struggling with all the same questions that I've been struggling with
for the past few days. It was a good show. Worth a listen. One
of the guests was a guy named Christopher Harmer. He was presented as an
expert on military strategic options in Syria, should the president decide
to act. He represented a think tank called
The Institute for the Study of War.
Strange name, but one that you'd be inclined to remember. I'd never heard
of them before, but I was destined to hear of them again in the very near
future. Christopher Harmer is a former Navy veteran of twenty years and a
Naval Academy graduate. You can read
about him
here.
He comes across in the interview as very professional, very knowledgeable, and
ultimately in favor of intervention in Syria. OK. That's
fine. No harm listening to the opinion of someone who might actually know
something about warfare.
Then yesterday morning something just a little bit weird happened. I'm
on the computer reading the news. Bouncing from topic to topic as I often
do, but this morning focusing a little bit more on the Syria stories
than I might otherwise do. I come across a
video
clip from Foxnews which claims to be a Bret Baier interview with a Syria
expert that will discuss not just military aspects of the crisis, but political
aspects as well, specifically, the makeup of opposition forces in Syria.
I'm really interested in this because on Sunday and Monday, I'd spent some time
preparing for a
Blogtalkradio
show that I do with my son Will every Monday afternoon, and we talked about
Syria.
I was particularly interested in the factional make up of the opposition.
I wanted to know who we'd be fighting for if we went in against Assad.
You can listen to the show at the above link if you're interested. I
won't spend any more time on that here. This post is already too long,
and that story, while interesting, is peripheral to the current
discussion. So anyway, I'm interested in what this expert has to
say. I want to see if it aligns with what I'd learned about the factions
from my own research, especially since I hadn't seen a lot on this topic in the
press up till that point, and I figured it was a pretty important
question. Well the interview was with a woman named Elizabeth O'Bagy, and
she works at a think tank called...wait for it...The Institute for the Study of
War. Wow. What a coincidence. Two days ago, I'd never heard
of them. Now, twice in two days they show up on news programs speaking
authoritatively on the subject of Syria. Normally, I wouldn't
have thought much about this, but as I said, over the weekend, I'd watched the
Moyers interview with Mark Leibovich. I'm kind of sensitized to this
whole conspiracy/nexus idea. I say sensitized. You might say
paranoid. Either way, I'm getting a little suspicious. Ms. O'Bagy is trying to convince the audience that the bulk of the Syrian opposition is aligned with US interests, and the more radical Islamists are a minority of the Syrian rebels. The Foxnews
presentation doesn't come across quite as well as the NPR story did.
Elizabeth O'Bagy isn't quite as convincing as Christopher Harmer was.
Maybe it's her age. She is quite young, and the title of expert is a
harder sell.
Her
bio is quite impressive, but it is more an academic background as opposed
to an operational military background.
Then this evening, I'm flipping between news channels on TV and I land
on CNN where they're talking about Syria, and who's on the panel?
Christopher Harmer.
Now this is freaking me out.
Now my curiosity is piqued.
Who are these guys? What is The Institute for the Study of War? Who runs it? Do they
have an agenda? Why are they suddenly all over the airwaves? Is
this a coincidence or a PR campaign? Are they really a think tank?
Is a think tank just another name for a lobbying organization? I want to
know if this is an unbiased presentation or is the Institute for the Study of
War just a glorified lobbying organization who are getting paid to find what
their sponsors want them to find.
So who runs The Institute for the Study of War? Well we live in the
internet age.
There is no excuse for not
having the answer to almost any question now that there is Google.
Click the link and behold.
The Institute for the Study
of War is run by a woman named Dr. Kimberly Kagan. Well that's
interesting. I know the name Kagan from somewhere, but not Kimberly
Kagan. This is starting to smell like one of those unexpected connections
I was speaking about earlier.
I can't quite place the reference though, so I
read a little further. Let me end the suspense and cut to the
chase.
From her bio:
"Dr. Kimberly Kagan founded ISW in May 2007, as U.S. forces undertook a daring new
counterinsurgency strategy to reverse the grim security situation on the ground
in Iraq
. Frustrated with the prevailing lack of accurate information documenting
developments on the ground in Iraq
and the detrimental effect of biased reporting on policymakers, Dr. Kagan
established ISW to provide real-time, independent, and open-source analysis of
ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks in Iraq. General Jack Keane (U.S.
Army, Ret.), the Chairman of ISW’s board, also played a central role in
developing the intellectual foundation for this change of strategy in Iraq, and
supported the formation of the Institute in 2007."
So she founded the institute to support the surge in Iraq.
OK. That's fine, but it does reveal a certain bias, don't you
agree? Jack Keane is or was a frequent contributor to
Foxnews. Again, OK, but not without the smell of potential bias.
But the name Kagan is familiar to me from somewhere else. I'd never
heard of Kimberly before though. It's time for another Google
search.
From
Wikipedia:
"Kimberly Ellen Kagan (born 1972) is an American military
historian. She heads the Institute for the Study of War and has taught at West
Point, Yale, Georgetown University, and American University.
Kagan has published in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times,
The Weekly Standard and elsewhere. She supported
the surge in Iraq and has
since advocated for an expanded and restructured American military campaign in Afghanistan.
In 2009 she served on Afghanistan
commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal's strategic assessment team."
OK. Now I get it. Kagan and TheWeekly Standard means
Neoconservative. I don't use that term with quite the derision that many
of my libertarian colleagues do. I used to be a Neocon. I supported
the Iraq
war before I was against it. Don't hate me for being wrong. Admire
me for being able to recognize a mistake. Furthermore, if you read
further in the Wikipedia article, you learn that Kimberly Kagan is married to
Frederick Kagan who is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. He formerly taught at West Point,
as did his wife Kimberly. Frederick Kagan is the son of Donald Kagan, a
historian at Yale, and the brother of Robert Kagan, who, with William Kristol
of Weekly Standard fame, co founded the
Project
for a New American Century. PNAC was an influential neoconservative
think tank that eventually withered away just about the time (2006) that the
Institute for the Study of War was being formed (2007). Frederick Kagan,
Donald Kagan, and Robert Kagan are all signatories to the Project for a New
American Century publication Rebuilding America's Defenses (2000).
Are you confused yet? I was too.
Here's the take home lesson.
The Kagans (the extended family of Kagans) along with folks like William Kristol,
belong to a political movement called Neoconservatism. They believe in a
strong military and aggressive foreign policy. The Institute for the
Study of War is not an independent think tank which conducts research to better
understand the world we live in. It is an advocacy group with a definite
point of view and a definite agenda. They seem to be masquerading as an
independent group offering what they characterize as well researched
information to assist policy makers and the public to understand the world we
live in. That is a deception. I am naturally wary of people who try
to deceive me. I certainly am reluctant to take their advice.
Neoconservatives are entitled to their view. But when they try to spread
their message while hiding behind the cloak of an independent think tank, we
should all be suspicious.
What a weird, incestuous cesspool Washington
is huh?
But wait.
I'm not quite done.
I promised you a surprise if you made it this
far.
Ready?
Robert Kagan, Kimberly Kagan's brother in
law, is married to Victoria Nuland. Who is Victoria Nuland? I
recognized that name the moment I read it, but I had to look it up because I
could hardly believe it could be the same Victoria Nuland.
Once more to Wikipedia:
"Victoria Jame Nuland (born 1961) is a US diplomat and
former spokesperson for the United States Department of State...
Nuland has emerged as one of the key figures who has been accused by various
sources of initiating a cover up of the 2012 Benghazi attack. After reading the first
draft of the State Department talking points that stated that the incident was
a coordinated terrorist attack, she sent a message writing that they “could be
abused by members of Congress to beat the State Department for not paying
attention to agency warnings so why would we want to seed the Hill.”
After this memo UN Ambassador Susan Rice was given talking points that formed
the basis of her statements on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Meet
the Press, State
of the Union with Candy Crowley, and Fox
News Sunday."
You can't make this stuff up. It's like a soap opera where you
discover that everyone is sleeping with everyone else. Are all of these
people in cahoots with one another? Are there any honest people in Washington? Is
there some sort of sinister cabal making all of our national security
decisions? Where can I get my tin foil hat?
I've asked a lot of questions in this post. I haven't come up with too
many answers. A few things I know for certain or almost certain. We're probably going to war with Syria in the next few days. There are people out there
who are trying to trick us, and they are shielding their true identity in order
to do it.
And they seem to be very good
at both deceptions, but maybe not good enough. It might work again this
time, just like it did in Iraq.
Just like it did in Libya.
But maybe one day they'll go too far. Hubris eventually catches up to
people. You can get so arrogant and so sure of yourself that you push
just a little too far. Will that happen this time? I don't have the answer to that question. But as today is the 50th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, perhaps it would be appropriate to listen to
the words of Dr. King in a speech he made several years later.
"And
don't let anybody make you think that God chose America as his divine,
messianic force to be a sort of policeman of the whole world. God has a
way of standing before the nations with judgment, and it seems that I
can hear God saying to America, 'You're too arrogant! And if you don't
change your ways, I will rise up and break the backbone of your power,
and I'll place it in the hands of a nation that doesn't even know my
name. Be still and know that I'm God."
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
Jess